Space-time risk clusters of COVID-19 in a tourism area in the northeastern Brazil: an epidemiological overview after two years of pandemic

The world is facing a serious viral infection caused by the new Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2. We aimed to evaluate and map the high-risk clusters of COVID-19 in the State of Alagoas, a touristic area in northeastern Brazil, after two years of pandemic by a population-based ecological study, using COVID-19 cases reported in the State of Alagoas, between March, 2020 and April, 2022. We performed a descriptive and statistical analysis of epidemiological data. We then map high-risk areas for COVID-19, using spatial analysis, considering the incidence rate by municipality. 297,972 positive cases were registered;56.9% were female and 42.7% aged between 20 and 39 years old. Men (OR = 1.59) and older than 60 years old (OR = 29.64) had a higher risk of death, while the highest incidence rates of the disease occurred in the metropolitan region. Our data demonstrate the impact of COVID-19 in the State of Alagoas, through the two years of pandemic. Although the number of cases were greater among women and young adults, the chance of death was greater among men and older adults. High-risk clusters of the disease initially occur in metropolitan cities and tourist areas.

Risk clusters of COVID-19 transmission in northeastern Brazil: prospective space-time modelling.

This study aimed to analyse the trend and spatial-temporal clusters of risk of transmission of COVID-19 in northeastern Brazil. We conducted an ecological study using spatial and temporal trend analysis. All confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Northeast region of Brazil were included, from 7 March to 22 May 2020. We used the segmented log-linear regression model to assess time trends, and the local empirical Bayesian estimator, the global and local Moran indexes for spatial analysis. The prospective space-time scan statistic was performed using the Poisson probability distribution model. There were 113 951 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The average incidence rate was 199.73 cases/100 000 inhabitants. We observed an increasing trend in the incidence rate in all states. Spatial autocorrelation was reported in metropolitan areas, and 178 municipalities were considered a priority, especially in the states of Ceará and Maranhão. We identified 11 spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19 cases; the primary cluster included 70 municipalities from Ceará state. COVID-19 epidemic is increasing rapidly throughout the Northeast region of Brazil, with dispersion towards countryside. It was identified high risk clusters for COVID-19, especially in the coastal side.